McKinsey lifts its 2030 chip forecast to $2.3 trillion

McKinsey has raised its base case for the 2030 global semiconductor market to $2.3T, up 44% from its previous estimate of $1.6T (Forecast, McKinsey via Bits&Chips, 29 Sep 2026). Annual growth through 2030 is now put at 19%, compared with 13% before (Forecast).

Where the growth comes from

In the forecast, chip sales for servers and data centers rise from $330B in 2025 to $1.2T in 2030 (Forecast). Leading-edge chips add $710B in market value and memory $560B (Forecast). Wafer volume growth is expected at about 7% a year, similar to the previous estimate (Forecast). As the source presents it, the higher value forecast therefore comes mainly from price rather than volume.

Conditions and range

The scenario range runs from $1.7T to $2.6T (Forecast). The forecast depends on sustained data center investment and a stable global economy. Added manufacturing capacity could ease the memory shortage from around 2027, though memory prices may stay above historical levels, according to the source.

Caveats and what to watch

This article relies on a secondary report; the primary McKinsey link is still to be added. Our article on AI data center chips covers another forecast from a different publisher with a different scope, so the numbers should not be compared like for like. Watch for the full McKinsey report and its assumptions.