Forecasts for 2026 chip sales have been revised upward several times in ten months. In its autumn 2025 forecast, released by SIA on 4 Dec 2025, WSTS projected 2026 sales of $975.4B (Forecast), revised up from its spring 2025 estimate of $760.7B (Forecast). The same release projected 2025 sales of $772.2B, up 22.5% (Forecast).

What came in higher

Reported sales for 2025 were $795.6B (Reported, WSTS). That was $23.4B, or about 3%, above the autumn 2025 forecast of $772.2B (Silicon Analytica calculation: $795.6B − $772.2B = $23.4B; $23.4B ÷ $772.2B ≈ 3.0%). In its spring 2026 release, WSTS forecast that 2026 sales would grow 90% to $1.51 trillion (Forecast), and that 2027 would grow a further 27% to about $1.9 trillion (Forecast), with memory up 32% and logic up 27% in 2027 (Forecast).

The latest estimate

WSTS reported first-half 2026 sales of $702B, up 102% year on year (Reported, WSTS Q2 release, 6 Aug 2026). Inserting that actual second-quarter data into the spring forecast gives a 2026 figure of $1,655B, about +108% and 18 percentage points above the original spring estimate, and about $2.1 trillion for 2027, up 29% (Estimate). As WSTS states, this is the spring forecast updated with actual Q2 data, not a new WSTS forecast; assumptions from the third quarter onwards are unchanged.

Caveats and what to watch

These are forecasts or estimates, not results. Revisions this large mean forecasts have been unreliable in this cycle. The sources do not separate price from volume, so they do not show which one drives the increase. The next WSTS forecast release and finalized 2026 figures will show how far the current estimate holds.

AW

For information and educational purposes only. This research is not personalized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell a security.